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已有研究探索了政府资助对非营利组织获得的捐赠的影响，提出并检验了挤出、挤入和倒U形等不同的理论模型。然而，对于政府资助是否以及在何种条件下挤出或挤入金钱捐赠仍未达成共识，对于政府资助是否以及如何影响时间捐赠也知之甚少，且来自西方情境的证据可能不适用于非西方情境。本研究基于随机选取的中国社会服务机构样本，提出了一个更为精细和复杂的政府资助对非营利组织获得捐赠的有条件的挤出/挤入模型，并将其扩展到中国情境中的金钱和时间捐赠。基于工具变量的扩展回归模型结果表明，政府资助挤出了金钱捐赠，而政府资助的依赖程度对金钱捐赠具有倒U形效应。此外，政府资助及其依赖程度对时间捐赠都有曲线挤出效应。更重要的是，政府资助的水平和依赖程度对金钱和时间捐赠都有显著的交互作用。这些新发现对已有文献具有重要的理论贡献，并且对政策制定者和非营利组织管理者具有重要的实际意义。
Abstract：Existing literature has studied the impact of government funding on donations to nonprofits,proposing and testing different theoretical models, including crowd-out, crowd-in, and inverted Ushaped models. However, there is no consensus regarding whether or under what conditions government funding crowds out or crowds in donations to nonprofits, and little is known regarding whether and how government funding influences time donations. Existing evidence focuses on Western contexts and may not be applicable to non-Western contexts. This study used a random sample of Chinese social service organizations and proposed a more nuanced and complex conditional crowd-out/in model of government funding on donations to nonprofits, extending the testing to both financial and time donations in China. The results from extended regression models with instrumental variables indicate that government funding levels crowd out money donations,while dependence on government funding has an inverted U-shaped effect on money donations.Both the level of and dependence on government funding have curvilinear crowding-out effects on time donations. More importantly, the level of and dependence on government funding have significant interactive effects on both money and time donations. These novel findings make significant theoretical contributions to the literature and have important practical implications for policymakers and nonprofit managers.
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(53)理想情况下,要衡量志愿者对非营利组织的时间贡献,收集组织层面的志愿服务时间应该是最佳选择。然而,收集此类数据非常困难,因为非营利组织通常没有志愿者管理系统来正式记录志愿服务时间。在对34家(约10.83%)样本社会服务机构的后续补充调查中,我们发现志愿者总数与志愿服务时间总数高度显著正相关(系数=0.70,p=0.000,即志愿者总数每增加1%,志愿服务时间总数就会增加约71%),志愿者总数本身就能解释志愿服务时间总数约60%的波动。这表明,在无法获得或难以收集志愿服务时间总数的情况下,以志愿者人数作为衡量时间贡献的替代指标是合理的。
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(60)根据ERM+IV方法(StataCorp,2021年,第14-16页),在对Y的回归模型中,我们通常假设协变量X1是内生变量,并且我们需要一个或多个变量(z1和z2)作为X1的工具变量。工具变量(z1和z2)需要与X1相关,但不能与因变量Y直接相关,除非它们通过对X1的影响。当满足这两个条件时,z1和z2可以作为X1的有效工具变量。ERM方法可以通过检查因变量Y的回归模型的误差项与自变量X1的回归模型的误差项之间的相关性是否显著来检验X1是否存在内生性问题。
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(63)Borgonovi F and O'hare M,“The impact of the national endowment for the arts in the United States:Institutional and sectoral effects on private funding,”Journal of Cultural Economics,vol.28,(2004),pp.21-36;Payne A A,“ Does the government crowd-out private donations?New evidence from a sample of non-profit firms”,Journal of Public Economics,vol.69,no.3(1998),pp.323-345;Andreoni J and Payne A A,“Do government grants to private charities crowd out giving or fund-raising?” American Economic Review,vol.93,no.3(2003),pp.792-812;Andreoni J and Payne A A,“Is crowding out due entirely to fundraising?Evidence from a panel of charities” ,Journal of Public Economics,vol.95,no.5-6(2011),pp.334-343.
(64)Brooks A C,“Public subsidies and charitable giving:Crowding out,crowding in,or both?” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,vol.19,no.3(2000),pp.451-464;Borgonovi F,“Do public grants to American theatres crowd-out private donations?” Public Choice,vol.126,no.3(2006),pp.429-451.
(65)Nikolova M,“Government funding of private voluntary organizations:Is there a crowding-out effect?” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly,vol.44,no.3(2015),pp.487-509.
(66)Brooks A C,“Public subsidies and charitable giving:Crowding out,crowding in,or both?” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,vol.19,no.3(2000),pp.451-464;Borgonovi F,“Do public grants to American theatres crowd-out private donations?” Public Choice,vol.126,no.3(2006),pp.429-451.
(67)Callen J L,“Money donations,volunteering and organizational efficiency,”Journal of Productivity Analysis,vol.5,(1994),pp.215-228.
(68)De Wit A and Bekkers R,“Government support and charitable donations:A meta-analysis of the crowding-out hypothesis,”Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory,vol.27,no.2(2017),pp.301-319;LU J,“The philanthropic consequence of government grants to nonprofit organizations:A meta-analysis,”Nonprofit Management and Leadership,vol.26,no.4(2016),pp.381-400;De Wit A,Bekkers R and Wiepking P,“Crowding-out or crowding-in,”Financing Nonprofit Organizations,2020;Tinkelman D and Neely D G,“Revenue interactions:Crowding out,crowding in,or neither?”Handbook of Research on Nonprofit Economics and Management,(2018),pp.35-61.
(69)Brooks A C,“Public subsidies and charitable giving:Crowding out,crowding in,or both?”Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,vol.19,no.3(2000),pp.451-464;Borgonovi F,“Do public grants to American theatres crowd-out private donations?” Public Choice,vol.126,no.3(2006),pp.429-451;Nikolova M,“Government funding of private voluntary organizations:Is there a crowding-out effect?” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly,vol.44,no.3(2015),pp.487-509.
(70)De Wit A and Bekkers R,“Government support and charitable donations:A meta-analysis of the crowding-out hypothesis,”Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory,vol.27,no.2(2017),pp.301-319.
基本信息:
DOI：10.20280/j.cnki.cn33-1435/c.2025.02.009
中图分类号:D632.9;D630
引用信息:
[1]吴中盛,董强,戴一鸣.政府资助对慈善捐赠和志愿服务的有条件挤出/挤入模型:来自中国社会服务机构的证据[J].公益研究,2025,No.2(02):112-133+138.DOI:10.20280/j.cnki.cn33-1435/c.2025.02.009.
基金信息:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助